The polyurethane industry originated in Germany and has developed rapidly in Europe, America, and Japan for over 50 years, becoming the fastest-growing industry in the chemical industry. In the 1970s, the total amount of global polyurethane products was 1.1 million tons, reaching 10 million tons in 2000 and approximately 13.7 million tons in 2005. From 2000 to 2005, the global average annual growth rate of polyurethane was about 6.7%. The North American, Asia Pacific, and European markets accounted for 95% of the global polyurethane market in 2010. The Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe, and South American markets are expected to grow rapidly in the next decade.
According to a research report by ResearchandMarkets, the global polyurethane market demand in 2010 was 13.65 million tons, and it is expected to reach 17.946 million tons in 2016, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.7%. Calculated by value, it is estimated to be $33.033 billion in 2010 and will reach $55.48 billion by 2016, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.8%. Due to the overcapacity of key polyurethane raw materials MDI and TDI in China, the demand for downstream polyurethane products has increased, and many multinational enterprises have shifted their business focus and research and development centers to the Asian and even Chinese markets, the domestic polyurethane industry will usher in a golden period in the future.
The market concentration ratio of polyurethane sub industries in the world is extremely high
The technical barrier of polyurethane raw materials, especially isocyanate, is high, so the market share of the world polyurethane industry is mainly occupied by several chemical giants, and the industry concentration ratio is very high.
The global CR5 of MDI is 83.5%, TDI is 71.9%, BDO is 48.6% (CR3), polyether polyols is 57.6%, and spandex is 58.2%.
The global production capacity and demand for polyurethane raw materials and products are expanding rapidly
(1) The production capacity of polyurethane raw materials is expanding rapidly. In terms of MDI and TDI, the global MDI production capacity reached 5.84 million tons and TDI production capacity reached 2.38 million tons in 2011. In 2010, the global MDI demand reached 4.55 million tons, with the Chinese market accounting for 27%. In 2011, the demand was about 5 million tons. It is expected that by 2015, the global MDI market demand will increase by about 40% to 6.4 million tons, and China's global market share will increase to 31% during the same period.
At present, there are more than 30 TDI enterprises and more than 40 TDI production units worldwide, with a total production capacity of 2.38 million tons. In 2010, the production capacity was 2.13 million tons. In 2010, the global TDI market demand was about 1.9 million tons, with China accounting for 30% of the total demand, about 570000 tons. In the next few years, the global TDI market demand will grow at a rate of 4% -5%, and it is expected that the global TDI market demand will reach 2.3 million tons by 2015. By 2015, the annual demand for TDI in China reached 828000 tons, accounting for 36% of the global total.
In terms of polyether polyols, the global production capacity of polyether polyols currently exceeds 9 million tons, while the consumption is between 5 and 6 million tons, indicating a significant overcapacity. The international polyether production capacity is mainly concentrated in several major companies such as Bayer, BASF, and Dow, with a CR5 of up to 57.6%.
(2) Mid stream polyurethane products. According to a report by IAL Consulting, the annual average growth rate of global polyurethane production from 2005 to 2007 was 7.6%, reaching 15.92 million tons. With the expansion of production capacity and increasing demand, it is expected to reach 18.7 million tons in 2012.
China's polyurethane industry has an average annual growth rate of 15%
The polyurethane industry in China emerged in the 1960s and initially developed very slowly. In 1982, the national polyurethane production was only 7000 tons. After the reform and opening up, with the rapid development of the national economy, the development of the polyurethane industry has also made rapid progress.
In 2005, the consumption of polyurethane products (including solvents) in China reached 3 million tons, and in 2010, it was about 6 million tons. The average annual growth rate from 2005 to 2010 was about 15%, much higher than the GDP growth rate.
The demand for polyurethane hard foam is expected to explode and grow
Polyurethane hard foam is mainly used in industries such as refrigeration, building insulation, and automobiles. In recent years, due to its extensive application in the fields of building insulation and cold chain logistics, the demand for polyurethane rigid foam has grown rapidly, with an average annual consumption growth rate of 16% from 2005 to 2010. In the future, with the continuous expansion of the building insulation and energy-saving market, the demand for polyurethane hard foam is expected to experience explosive growth. It is expected that within the next five years, polyurethane hard foam will continue to grow at a rate of over 15%.
Domestic polyurethane soft foam is mainly used in the fields of furniture and car seat cushions. In 2010, the consumption of polyurethane soft foam in China reached 1.27 million tons, and the average annual consumption growth rate from 2005 to 2010 was 16%. It is expected that the demand for polyurethane soft foam in China will increase by about 10% in the next few years.
China's spandex industry has a high concentration ratio
Polyurethane fiber is currently the most elastic high-end synthetic fiber and an essential fiber component for elastic clothing and high-end fabrics. China's spandex industry has a high concentration ratio, with CR5 above 60%. Driven by profits, Chinese enterprises have continuously invested in building new production capacity, increasing the spandex production capacity from 25000 tons in 2001 to 394000 tons in 2010, accounting for 63% of global production capacity. In contrast, the demand for spandex in China has grown relatively slowly, only from 35000 tons in 2001 to 189000 tons in 2008, resulting in a serious overcapacity of domestic spandex production capacity.
Synthetic leather slurry sole solution ranks first in the world
Polyurethane elastomers are widely used in industries such as steel, paper making, printing, etc. There are several manufacturers with a capacity of 10000 tons, and about 200 small and medium-sized manufacturers.
Polyurethane synthetic leather is widely used in luggage, clothing, shoe making, etc. In 2009, China consumed approximately 1.32 million tons of polyurethane slurry. China is not only the world's largest producer and consumer of polyurethane synthetic leather, but also the most important exporter of polyurethane synthetic leather products. In 2009, China consumed approximately 334000 tons of polyurethane sole solution, ranking first in the world.
The average annual growth rate of polyurethane coatings and adhesives revenue is over 10%
Polyurethane coatings are widely used in high-end wood coatings, architectural coatings, heavy-duty anti-corrosion coatings, high-end automotive coatings, etc; Polyurethane adhesives are widely used in shoe making, composite film, construction, automotive, and aerospace special bonding and sealing. There are more than ten thousand ton manufacturers each of polyurethane coatings and adhesives. In 2010, the production of polyurethane coatings was 950000 tons, and the production of polyurethane adhesives was 320000 tons.
Since 2001, the average annual growth rate of adhesive production and sales revenue in China has been over 10%. According to the prediction of the China Adhesive Industry Association, the demand for various types of adhesives in China will increase at an average annual rate of over 7% in the coming years. Benefiting from the rapid development of the adhesive industry, composite polyurethane adhesive has seen an average annual sales growth rate of up to 20% in the past decade, making it one of the fastest growing adhesive products. Among them, plastic flexible packaging is the main application field of composite polyurethane adhesives, accounting for more than 50% of the total production and sales of composite polyurethane adhesives. According to the prediction of the China Adhesive Industry Association, the production of composite polyurethane adhesives for plastic flexible packaging will exceed 340000 tons in 2012.
In the future, China will become the development center of the global polyurethane industry
Benefiting from China's abundant resources and vast market, the production and sales of polyurethane products in China have been continuously increasing. In 2009, the consumption of polyurethane products in China reached 5 million tons, accounting for approximately 30% of the global market. In the future, China's proportion of polyurethane products in the world will continue to rise. It is expected that in 2012, China's polyurethane production will account for over 35% of the global share, becoming the largest producer of polyurethane products.
Four major factors driving the future development of polyurethane
1. Policy driven. A series of policies and regulations on building energy conservation have been issued domestically, and the energy-saving and emission reduction of construction projects is a key investment direction for the government. Building energy conservation policies have become an important driving force in driving the polyurethane market.
2. The automotive industry. The amount of polyurethane materials and other automotive plastics used is an important indicator of the level of modern automotive design and manufacturing technology. At present, the average plastic consumption of cars in developed countries is about 190kg/vehicle, accounting for 13% -15% of the car's self weight. However, in China, the average plastic consumption of cars is 80-100kg/vehicle, accounting for 8% of the car's self weight, indicating a significantly lower application proportion.
In 2010, China's automobile production and sales reached 18.267 million and 18.069 million, respectively, ranking first in the world. According to the 12th Five Year Plan of the automotive industry, the actual production capacity of automobiles in China will reach 53 million units by 2015. The future development of China's automotive industry will gradually shift from pursuing production capacity and scale to focusing on quality and level. In 2010, the consumption of PU in China's automobile industry was about 300000 tons. In the future, with the significant increase in China's automobile production and the improvement of plastic consumption level, it is expected that by 2015, the consumption of PU in China's automobile industry will reach 800000-900000 tons.
3. Building energy efficiency. According to China's energy conservation work deployment, by the end of 2010, urban buildings will meet the design standard of 50% energy efficiency, and by 2020, the total energy consumption of buildings in society must achieve at least 65% energy efficiency. At present, polystyrene is the main material for building energy conservation in China. To achieve the energy-saving target of 65% by 2020, comprehensive energy-saving measures need to be taken for the exterior walls of 43 billion square meters of buildings. Polyurethane accounts for 75% of the market share in building energy-saving and insulation materials in internationally developed countries, while less than 10% of building insulation materials in China currently use polyurethane hard foam materials. The building energy-saving and insulation market will be the application area with the greatest potential for consumption growth of polyurethane hard foam in China in the future.
4. Market demand for refrigerators and other refrigeration appliances. Polyurethane has an irreplaceable role in the application of refrigerators and freezers. With the development of urbanization, the increase in the popularity of refrigerators and other products, as well as product updates, have driven the development of the refrigerator and freezer market, and the development space of polyurethane in the field of refrigerators and freezers has also increased.
Investment strategy
The market believes that the polyurethane industry is generally sluggish and not optimistic about it. We believe that the polyurethane industry is currently in the bottom operating area. Due to the strong scale expansion ability of the industry, there will be restorative growth in 2012, especially in the future when China will become the global center of polyurethane industry development. Polyurethane economy development and people's lives are indispensable emerging materials. The average annual growth rate of China's polyurethane industry is 15%, Benefiting from policy support, the company will enter the recovery period first, and the future performance growth will be good.